In order to motivate our definition of the notion of expectation, let us first discuss the meaning of the word “average”. Given a set of
The quantity
For example, consider the scores on an examination of a class of 20 students:
The average of these scores is
Very often, a set of
In terms of this notation, the average
We may go one step further. Let us define the quantity
that represents the fraction of the set of numbers
In words, we may read (1.6) as follows: the average
The question naturally arises as to the meaning to be assigned to the average of a set of numbers. It seems clear that the average of a set of numbers is computed for the purpose of summarizing the data represented by the set of numbers, so as to better comprehend it. Given the examination scores of a large number of students, it is difficult to form an opinion as to how well the students performed, except perhaps by forming averages.
However, it is also clear that the average of a set of numbers, as defined by (1.1) or (1.6) , does not serve to summarize the data completely. Consider a second group of twenty students who, in the same examination on which the scores in (1.2) were obtained, gave the following performance:
The average, in the sense of (1.6) , is a measure of what might be called the mid-point, or mean, of the data, about which the numbers in the data are, loosely speaking, “centered.” More precisely, the mean
Perhaps another characteristic of the data for which one should have a measure is its spread or dispersion about the mean. Of course, it is not clear how this measure should be defined.
The dispersion might be defined as the average of the absolute value of the deviation of each number in the set from the mean
The value of the expression (1.9) for the data in (1.3) , (1.7) , and (1.8) is equal to 1.3, 1.1, and 0.9 , respectively, where in each case the mean
Another possible measure of the spread of the data is the average of the squares of the deviation from the mean
which has the values
Next, one may desire a measure for the symmetry of the distribution of the scores about their mean, for which purpose one might take the average of the cubes of the deviation of each number in the set from the mid-point
which has the values
From the foregoing discussion one conclusion emerges clearly. Given data
Exercises
In each of the following exercises find the average with respect to the data given for these functions: (i)
Hint : First compute the number of times each number appears in the data.
1.1. The number of rainy days in a certain town during the month of January for the years 1950–1959 was as follows:
| Year | 1950 | 1951 | 1952 | 1953 | 1954 | 1955 | 1956 | 1957 | 1958 | 1959 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of rainy days in January | 8 | 9 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 21 |
Answer
(i) 13; (ii) 24.4; (iii) 63.6; (iv) 0; (v) 4.4.
1.2 . Record the last digits of the last 20 telephone numbers appearing on the first page of your local telephone directory.
1.3 . Ten light bulbs were subjected to a forced life test. Their lifetimes were found to be (to the nearest 10 hours)
Answer
(i) 1010; (ii) 9100; (iii) 63,600; (iv) 0; (v) 840.
1.4 . An experiment consists of drawing 2 balls without replacement from an urn containing 6 balls, numbered 1 to 6, and recording the sum of the 2 numbers drawn. In 30 repetitions of the experiment the sums recorded were (compare example 4A of Chapter 2)